In a surprising turn of events, India and China are preparing to restore direct flight connections as early as next month, according to sources familiar with the ongoing discussions. This move comes at a time when tensions between India and the United States are escalating, fueled by former US President Donald Trump’s proposal to slap a steep 50% tariff on Indian goods.
The proposed tariff is not just a trade issue — it’s reshaping global alliances. Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be strengthening ties with BRICS partners, particularly China, marking a significant shift from the frosty relations that followed the 2020 Galwan Valley clash.
India and China to Resume Direct Flights
Passenger flights between India and China have been suspended since the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing travelers to take detours through hubs like Hong Kong or Singapore. The pandemic lockdowns coincided with a severe diplomatic freeze after the Galwan Valley border conflict, which claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops.
Now, the Indian government has instructed domestic airlines to be ready to operate flights to China on short notice. According to Bloomberg, an official announcement could be made during Prime Minister Modi’s expected visit to China later this month. This would be his first trip to the country in seven years, where he is likely to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin on August 31.
Expert Opinions: A Strategic Shift
Henry Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, says the India-China relationship is now in an “up cycle.” As two leading voices of the Global South, Wang believes both nations have a responsibility to maintain dialogue.
“Trump’s tariff war on India has made India realize that they need to safeguard strategic autonomy and independence,” he explained.
Washington has long viewed India as a strategic counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region. However, trade wars and aggressive tariff policies from the US could be pushing New Delhi and Beijing toward common ground.
China’s Open Support for India
China’s ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, recently expressed moral support for India against the US tariffs. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he wrote:
“Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,”
referring to the dangers of using tariffs as a political weapon, echoing sentiments from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Warnings from US Experts
Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has warned that Trump’s aggressive trade stance toward India could backfire. He argues that the tariffs, intended to weaken Russia’s trade partners, might inadvertently push India closer to both Moscow and Beijing.
“Trump’s leniency on China, combined with heavy-handed tariffs on India, risks undoing decades of US efforts to draw India away from Russia and China,” Bolton told CNN.
Why Trump’s 50% Tariff Matters
Earlier this month, Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing India’s purchase of Russian oil as the reason. He also made disparaging remarks about India’s economy, calling it “dead” and labeling its trade policies as “obnoxious.”
This drastic tariff hike has forced India to reconsider its trade and foreign policy priorities. For New Delhi, expanding ties with other major economies — including China — could help cushion the blow of potential export losses to the US.
Signs of a Thaw from Beijing
China, which has also been a target of Trump’s trade war, is signaling its readiness to improve ties with India. In a notable gesture, Beijing recently eased restrictions on urea shipments to India — the world’s largest fertilizer importer. While the initial shipment volumes are small, this move could grow into a broader trade revival, potentially easing global supply shortages and stabilizing prices.
Interestingly, China lifted its general ban on urea exports in June but had continued restricting shipments to India until now, making this decision a significant diplomatic olive branch.
Adani Group’s Potential China Connection
Adding another layer to this developing relationship, India’s Adani Group is reportedly in talks with Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD Co. for a possible joint venture. Such a partnership could allow Adani to produce EV batteries in India, strengthening its clean energy business and aligning with India’s green transition goals.
The Bigger Picture
Trump’s 50% tariff plan is more than a trade penalty — it’s a geopolitical shockwave. By pushing India away economically, the US risks losing one of its most important allies in the Indo-Pacific. For China, however, this is an opportunity to rebuild bridges with New Delhi after years of strained relations.
If direct flights resume, trade flows improve, and joint business ventures take shape, the current tariff war could mark the beginning of a new India-China rapprochement. In the shifting sands of global politics, today’s adversaries could very well become tomorrow’s partners — and Trump’s tariff bomb might be the unlikely trigger.
