Executive Summary
Work-related migration to developed nations experienced a dramatic 21% decline in 2024, dropping to approximately 934,000 admissions across OECD countries. This marks a significant reversal after years of post-pandemic growth, driven by weakening labor markets, tighter visa policies, and shifting economic conditions.
Key Findings at a Glance
- Work migration dropped 21% across OECD nations in 2024
- UK net migration fell over 40% due to stricter visa rules
- International student arrivals declined 13% year-over-year
- Total permanent migration dipped just 4%, cushioned by humanitarian migration
- 6.2 million newcomers still arrived in 2024, 15% above pre-pandemic levels
Why Is Work Migration Declining in 2024?
Economic Headwinds Dampen Demand
According to Jean-Christophe Dumont, head of OECD’s international migration division, the primary driver is a deteriorating global economic outlook. The International Monetary Fund slashed its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8%, citing trade tensions as a major constraint.
Weaker economic conditions have cooled labor demand across advanced economies, reducing the need for foreign workers even in countries that haven’t changed their immigration policies.
Policy Tightening Across Major Destinations
Several traditionally migrant-friendly nations have implemented restrictive measures:
United Kingdom: The most dramatic changes occurred here, with net migration plummeting over 40% in 2024 following significant visa policy reforms.
Canada and Australia: Both countries introduced measures over the past two years specifically targeting work-related migration flows.
United States: While policy changes came later in the year with the new administration, the groundwork for reduced migration was already in place.
Even in European Union countries without explicit policy changes, work migration fell below 2019 levels, suggesting broader economic factors at play.
Ukrainian Refugees Fill Labor Gaps
An often-overlooked factor is the impact of Ukrainian displacement. Approximately 5.1 million Ukrainians granted temporary protection across OECD states (as of June 2025) have helped address labor shortages in multiple sectors, particularly in Europe. This influx has reduced demand for traditional work visa programs.
The Broader Migration Picture
Student Migration Also Declining
International student arrivals dropped 13% between 2023 and 2024. Major destination countries—the UK, US, Canada, and Australia—all tightened student visa policies, responding to concerns about:
- Migration fraud and visa system exploitation
- Housing market pressures in university cities
- Political scrutiny of immigration pathways
Humanitarian Migration on the Rise
While work and student migration declined, asylum-seeking continued to climb:
- The US saw surging asylum applications in late 2024 during the Biden administration’s final months
- The UK experienced sharp increases in unauthorized small-boat arrivals from EU countries
- Overall humanitarian migration rose across most OECD nations
This increase in humanitarian migration offset declines elsewhere, meaning total permanent migration to advanced economies in 2024 fell by only 4% from 2023’s peak of 6.5 million.
Historical Context: Recent Migration Trends
Record-Breaking 2023
A record 6.5 million people settled in OECD countries in 2023, representing a nearly 10% increase from 2022’s previous record of six million. The UK saw the greatest surge.
Roughly one-third of OECD countries, including Canada, France, and Japan, experienced record immigration levels. The United States alone received 1.2 million permanent legal immigrants.
Economic Impact
Research by Goldman Sachs revealed that immigration drove most employment gains in several developed nations in 2023:
- Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Germany, and the UK relied heavily on immigrant labor for job growth
- The US added over four million jobs attributable to immigration
- Foreign-born workers showed employment rates matching or exceeding native-born populations
In the UK, for instance, the employment rate among foreign-born workers reached approximately 76%—slightly higher than UK-born workers.
What’s Next for Global Migration?
2025 Outlook
Despite the recent decline, migration to OECD countries is expected to remain historically elevated in 2025. Jean-Christophe Dumont predicts:
- Overall immigration will ease slightly but stay well above historical norms
- Stricter US policies will have an impact but won’t reverse broader trends
- Migrant employment rates remain robust across labor markets
Structural Labor Market Challenges
The decline in work migration highlights deeper structural issues in developed economies. Higher-skilled visa programs continue to perform well, but lower-skilled sectors face persistent challenges.
Fabiola Mieres, senior migration specialist at the International Labour Organization, emphasizes the need to address native labor shortages in key sectors:
Critical sectors with migrant concentration:
- Agriculture
- Construction
- Healthcare
“Minimum wages and working conditions are part of the story,” Mieres notes. Countries must reconsider how they address labor gaps in jobs that domestic workers are reluctant to fill.
Political Implications
Immigration is poised to remain a contentious political issue, particularly in Europe and the United States. The topic generates significant emotional responses and will likely feature prominently in electoral campaigns worldwide.
The challenge for policymakers is balancing legitimate economic needs for foreign labor with public concerns about immigration levels, integration, and resource allocation.
Understanding the OECD
Origins and Evolution
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development began in 1948 as a coordinator for the US Marshall Plan, focused on rebuilding Western Europe after World War II. Initially a forum for European economic planning and trade barrier removal, it expanded globally in 1961 to include the US and Canada.
Current Role
Today, the OECD comprises 38 wealthy and emerging economies and serves as:
- A central hub for economic research and policy analysis
- A developer of international governance standards
- A leading authority on education, labor markets, and environmental policy
Recent Achievements
The OECD spearheaded the landmark 2019 proposal for a minimum 15% tax on multinational corporations, adopted by the G20 in October 2021. These rules have curtailed tax avoidance by major tech companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Apple, making it harder to exploit low-tax jurisdictions.
Conclusion
The 21% decline in work-related migration to wealthy countries signals a significant shift in global labor mobility. Driven by economic uncertainty, policy tightening, and the unique circumstances of Ukrainian displacement, this trend represents more than a temporary fluctuation.
As developed nations grapple with aging populations and persistent labor shortages in certain sectors, the interplay between economic necessity and political will continues to shape migration policy. While 2024 marked a decline from recent peaks, migration levels remain substantially above pre-pandemic norms, suggesting that international labor mobility remains a fundamental feature of the global economy.
The coming years will test whether countries can develop migration frameworks that meet economic needs while addressing public concerns—a balance that will define labor markets and political landscapes across the developed world.
