A crucial inflation report arrives in less than a week—and it could push the projected Social Security increase above or below the current 3.6% estimate.
Millions of Social Security recipients are about to receive their clearest indication yet of how much benefits could rise in 2027.
On Friday, September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish its August inflation report. The release will provide another critical piece of the calculation used to determine Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustment, commonly known as the COLA. The official BLS calendar confirms the release date.
The final increase will not be announced until October, but September’s update could significantly narrow the range of possible outcomes.
Why the September 11 report matters
Social Security’s COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.
The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W reading from July, August and September with the corresponding third-quarter average used for the previous adjustment.
July’s number is already available. Once the August figure arrives, five of the six monthly figures involved in the year-to-year comparison will be known—leaving only September’s inflation data outstanding.
That means forecasters should be able to produce a much more reliable estimate after September 11.
Could benefits rise by 3.6%?
The Senior Citizens League currently projects a 3.6% COLA for 2027, according to Newsweek.
That would be higher than the 2.8% adjustment applied for 2026. However, 3.6% is still only a forecast—it has not been approved or announced by the Social Security Administration.
If a 3.6% increase were confirmed, the approximate monthly effect could look like this:
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- A $1,500 benefit could rise by about $54
- A $2,000 benefit could rise by about $72
- A $2,500 benefit could rise by about $90
- The average retirement benefit of approximately $2,086 could rise by roughly $75
These estimates represent gross increases before Medicare premiums, taxes or other deductions.
The number could still move in either direction
If August inflation is higher than economists expect, the projected COLA could climb above 3.6%.
If inflation cools, the forecast could fall closer to the lower estimates of around 3.4% or 3.5%. September’s inflation reading could then move the final result again.
Recipients should therefore be cautious about making spending decisions based on the current projection.
A larger COLA is not necessarily good news
A higher adjustment may sound like a financial boost, but it usually reflects higher prices that beneficiaries have already been paying.
Food, housing, utilities and medical expenses can rise months before the additional Social Security money reaches recipients. Medicare Part B premium increases may also absorb part of the adjustment for beneficiaries whose premiums are deducted directly from their checks.
The COLA is designed to protect purchasing power—not provide a bonus or an increase in real income. The Social Security Administration explains that the adjustment is tied automatically to CPI-W inflation.
When will the final 2027 COLA be announced?
The official figure is expected on October 14, 2026, when September’s inflation data completes the third-quarter calculation.
Beneficiaries will subsequently receive personalized notices showing their updated payment amounts. Social Security retirement and disability increases generally appear in January payments, while Supplemental Security Income timing can differ around the New Year holiday.
Until then, September 11 is the first major date to watch.
The upcoming inflation report will not reveal the final COLA—but it could tell millions of Americans whether the expected increase is growing, shrinking or remaining near 3.6%.
Payment examples are estimates and do not represent an official benefit calculation.
