I’ll be honest with you: if you’re sitting in the Express Entry pool with a CRS score between 490 and 509 right now, February 2026 might be the most important month you’ve experienced since creating your profile.
After watching IRCC issue 14,000 Canadian Experience Class invitations in January alone—including that massive 8,000-ITA draw on January 7 and the 6,000-ITA draw on January 21—the question everyone’s asking isn’t “will there be more draws?” It’s “will my score finally be enough?”
The data suggests something significant is happening. CEC cutoffs dropped from 515 to 511 to 509 over three weeks. That’s not normal. That’s momentum.
But here’s what nobody’s saying loudly enough: the pool is refilling almost as fast as IRCC is draining it. And that’s why predicting February requires more than just looking at recent cutoffs—it requires understanding the mechanics of how Express Entry actually works.
Let me walk you through what’s really happening, what February likely holds, and whether that elusive “below 500” cutoff is actually within reach.
What Happened in January That Changed Everything
January 2026 marked a clear shift in IRCC’s approach. Let’s look at the numbers:
January 5: PNP draw, 574 ITAs at CRS 711
January 7: CEC draw, 8,000 ITAs at CRS 511
January 20: PNP draw, 681 ITAs at CRS 746
January 21: CEC draw, 6,000 ITAs at CRS 509
That’s 14,000 CEC invitations in two weeks with the cutoff dropping 6 points. For context, some months in 2025 saw total CEC volumes of 1,000-3,000.
This isn’t random. This is deliberate strategy.
IRCC is clearly trying to reduce the pressure that’s been building at the top end of the pool. They’re running what I call “inventory-clearing rounds”—large-volume draws designed to pull thousands of candidates out of the 501-600 score range.
The question is: will they maintain this pace through February?
Understanding the Pool: Why CRS Isn’t Dropping Faster
Here’s what frustrates people: IRCC issues 8,000 invitations, and the cutoff only drops 4 points. How is that possible?
The answer lies in how the Express Entry pool refills.
The January 19 pool snapshot showed:
- 16,341 candidates in the 501-600 range
- 72,714 candidates in the 451-500 range
- 677 candidates in the 601-1200 range (mostly PNP nominees)
After the January 21 draw removed 6,000 candidates at CRS 509, you’d expect the 501-600 band to shrink dramatically, right?
It does—but not as much as you’d think.
Here’s why: between December 14 and January 19, even though IRCC issued 13,000+ ITAs, the 501-600 band only decreased by about 5,400 candidates. That means roughly 7,600 new profiles entered that score range during the same period.
Where do these new profiles come from?
- Candidates gaining an additional month of Canadian work experience (worth 5-15 CRS points)
- New language test results pushing people from 490s into 500s
- Spouse gaining Canadian experience or education credentials
- New graduates completing programs and becoming CEC-eligible
- Candidates who were in the pool before but just crossed the 500 threshold
The Express Entry pool is not a static bathtub that empties when you pull the plug. It’s more like a bathtub with the faucet running while you’re draining it.
The Pattern That Matters: What to Expect in February
Since October 27, 2025, IRCC has followed a predictable rhythm:
Week 1: Provincial Nominee Program draw (early week)
Week 1: Canadian Experience Class draw (mid-to-late week)
Week 2 (optional): Category-based draw (French or Healthcare)
This pattern has repeated consistently for nearly four months. There’s no reason to think February will be different.
Here’s what I’m predicting for early February:
February 2-3: PNP Draw
Expected ITAs: 400-900
Predicted CRS range: 715-755
PNP cutoffs are always high because provincial nominations add 600 points to your base score. The actual cutoff depends on how many nominated candidates are in the pool that week.
Recent PNP draws have ranged from 699 (November 25) to 761 (October 27), with most landing in the 710-750 range. There’s no strong reason to expect February to deviate from this.
February 3-5: CEC Draw
Expected ITAs: 4,000-7,000
Predicted CRS range: 503-507
This is the one everyone’s watching.
If IRCC maintains the large draw sizes we saw in January (5,000-8,000), the cutoff should continue dropping. Based on the pool composition and the January momentum, I’m predicting somewhere between 503-507.
Could it go lower? Yes, if:
- IRCC issues 7,000+ ITAs again
- The pool didn’t refill above 500 as quickly as usual
- They run another large CEC draw later in February
Could it stay higher? Also yes, if:
- Draw size shrinks back to 1,000-2,000 (like we saw in November)
- More high-scoring profiles entered the pool than expected
- IRCC shifts focus to category draws instead
February 5-10: Optional Category Draw
Most likely: French language proficiency
Expected ITAs: 1,000-6,000
Predicted CRS: 395-410 for French
If IRCC runs a category draw, French is the most probable. They issued three massive French draws in late 2025 (6,000 ITAs each), and the scores have been trending down: 416, 408, 399.
Healthcare is also possible, though less frequent. Recent healthcare draws have been at 462 and 476.
Will CRS Break Below 500 in February?
This is the million-dollar question, and I’m going to give you the honest answer: maybe, but it’s not guaranteed.
Here’s what needs to happen for a sub-500 cutoff:
1. IRCC maintains large CEC draw sizes (5,000+)
If they drop back to 1,000-2,000 invitation rounds, the cutoff will stabilize or even rise.
2. Multiple large draws in February
One 6,000-ITA draw might bring it close. Two large draws could push it below 500.
3. The pool doesn’t refill above 500 too quickly
This is the wildcard we can’t control.
Let me give you a realistic scenario:
Scenario 1: Aggressive February
- February 3: CEC draw, 7,000 ITAs at CRS 504
- February 17: CEC draw, 6,000 ITAs at CRS 498
- Result: First sub-500 CEC cutoff since… I honestly can’t remember when
Scenario 2: Conservative February
- February 3: CEC draw, 2,000 ITAs at CRS 517
- February 17: CEC draw, 3,000 ITAs at CRS 514
- Result: Cutoffs stabilize or rise slightly
Scenario 3: Mixed February (most likely)
- February 3: CEC draw, 5,000 ITAs at CRS 506
- February 17: CEC draw, 5,000 ITAs at CRS 502
- Result: Trending toward sub-500, but not quite there yet
Based on January’s momentum and the pool dynamics, I’d put the probability of seeing a sub-500 CEC cutoff in February at about 35-40%. Possible? Absolutely. Guaranteed? Not even close.
The Math Behind the Predictions
Let me show you why I’m predicting 503-507 for the next CEC draw.
As of January 19, there were 16,341 candidates in the 501-600 range. The January 21 draw issued 6,000 ITAs at CRS 509.
Based on observed patterns, that draw probably removed about 3,000 candidates from the 501-600 band (the rest came from just above 509 and new profiles). That leaves roughly 13,300 candidates in that range.
If IRCC issues another 5,000-6,000 ITAs in early February, they’ll pull heavily from the 501-510 zone. The cutoff will land wherever they hit their ITA target.
With 13,300 candidates spread across the 501-600 range, and assuming most density is in the 501-520 zone (which is typical), a 5,000-ITA draw should land somewhere between 503-507.
But here’s the uncertainty: we don’t know how many new 500+ profiles entered the pool since January 19. If it’s 500 per week, the math holds. If it’s 1,500 per week, the cutoff might stay at 508-510.
This is why Express Entry predictions are educated guesses, not guarantees.
What Each CRS Score Range Should Do
Let me give you practical guidance based on where you currently sit:
CRS 520+
Your situation: You’re almost certainly getting invited in the next CEC draw.
What to do:
- Make sure your profile is up-to-date and valid
- Have your documents ready for the ITA
- Don’t wait—apply immediately when invited
CRS 510-519
Your situation: Very strong chance of invitation in February.
What to do:
- Same as above—be ready
- If you’re at 510-512, watch the first February draw closely
- Consider quick point boosters if you’re at 510-511 (language retest, spouse education assessment)
CRS 500-509
Your situation: This is the battleground. You’re right on the edge.
What to do:
- Do NOT wait passively. Every point matters.
- Retake IELTS if you’re not at CLB 10 across the board
- Get spouse credentials assessed if you haven’t
- Look into provincial nomination streams—you’re competitive for many
- Watch February draws obsessively and be ready to pivot strategy
CRS 490-499
Your situation: Sub-500 cutoffs are possible but not guaranteed.
What to do:
- Focus on point optimization immediately
- Seriously consider French language training—even basic French can qualify you for dramatically lower cutoffs
- Research category-based draws you might qualify for
- Look into PNP programs where 490+ is competitive
- Don’t sit and wait—actively improve your score
CRS 470-489
Your situation: CEC is unlikely unless something dramatic changes.
What to do:
- French language proficiency is your best bet (recent cutoffs: 399-416)
- Category draws (Healthcare, Trades) if you qualify
- Provincial nomination is essential at this range
- Consider gaining more Canadian work experience to boost CRS
- Look into alternative pathways (PNP, AIP, RNIP)
CRS Below 470
Your situation: Express Entry alone won’t work right now.
What to do:
- Provincial nomination is mandatory—research eligible streams
- Build Canadian experience if you’re already in Canada
- French language proficiency could make you eligible at much lower scores
- Consider alternative immigration programs entirely
- Don’t let your profile expire—maintain it while you build your score
Signals to Watch in Early February
Don’t just wait for the next draw—watch for these indicators that tell you what’s coming:
Positive signals (suggesting lower cutoffs):
- Another CEC draw within 10-14 days of the last one
- ITA count of 5,000 or higher
- Cutoff dropping again from 509 (even by 2-3 points shows continued momentum)
- Multiple draws in the same week (PNP + CEC + Category)
Negative signals (suggesting stabilization or rise):
- Gap of 3+ weeks between CEC draws
- ITA count dropping to 1,000-3,000
- Cutoff holding steady or rising from 509
- Heavy focus on category draws instead of CEC
Neutral signals:
- Large French or Healthcare draws (these don’t affect CEC cutoffs much)
- PNP draw sizes and cutoffs (these are independent)
Why PNP Cutoffs Don’t Matter (And Why They Do)
Here’s something that confuses people: PNP Express Entry draws show cutoffs of 711, 746, even 761. Does that mean the system is getting more competitive?
No. PNP cutoffs are artificially inflated because provincial nominations add 600 points to your base score.
If you have a base CRS of 400 and receive a provincial nomination, your score becomes 1000. You’re invited in the next PNP draw regardless of the cutoff.
PNP cutoffs only matter to people who already have nominations. They’re essentially meaningless for everyone else.
But here’s why PNP matters to you even if you don’t have a nomination:
Provincial Nominee Programs offer pathways for candidates with scores that aren’t competitive for CEC. If you’re sitting at 470 and can’t boost higher, a PNP nomination is your ticket.
Many PNP streams have occupation lists, location requirements, or job offer needs. Research them. For candidates under 500 CRS, PNP is often the most realistic path forward.
The French Language Advantage Nobody Talks About Enough
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: French.
In late 2025, IRCC issued 18,000 French language proficiency ITAs at cutoffs between 379 and 416. Compare that to CEC at 509-533.
That’s a 130-point advantage for knowing French.
If you have CRS 470 and you’re frustrated watching CEC sit at 509, consider this: with moderate French proficiency (CLB 7 in French), you could become eligible for category draws at 400-420.
I’m not saying “go learn French overnight.” But if you’re serious about Canadian permanent residence and you’re stuck under 500 CRS, investing 6-12 months into French language study could be the smartest strategic move you make.
The French category exists because Canada has a federal commitment to admit 9% French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec by 2026, rising to 10.5% by 2027. This isn’t going away—it’s government policy.
Category Draws: The Alternative Path
Beyond French, other category-based draws offer lower cutoffs:
Healthcare occupations: Recent cutoffs of 462 and 476
Trades: September 2025 draw at 505
STEM: Limited draws in 2025, uncertain for 2026
Agriculture: Minimal activity recently
If you qualify for any of these categories, you should optimize your profile for those draws rather than banking entirely on CEC.
My Honest Take on February 2026
After analyzing the data, tracking the patterns, and understanding the pool mechanics, here’s what I really think:
February will be a critical month. If IRCC maintains the January pace with large, frequent CEC draws, we could see the first sub-500 cutoff in years—possibly by late February.
But if they pivot back to smaller draws or shift focus to category-based selection, CEC cutoffs will stabilize in the 505-515 range and frustrated candidates will continue waiting.
The most likely scenario? A middle path. Continued large draws (4,000-6,000), cutoffs trending down into the 502-506 range, with sub-500 becoming increasingly possible by March or April if the trend continues.
For candidates sitting between 490-509: This is your moment. Don’t waste it waiting passively. Every point you can gain right now could be the difference between an ITA in February and waiting another 6 months.
For candidates below 490: Express Entry is one path, not the only path. Explore PNPs, build your score, learn French, or consider alternative programs. Don’t let Express Entry tunnel vision blind you to other viable routes.
What You Should Do Right Now
Regardless of your score, here’s your action plan:
1. Check your profile expiration date
Profiles are valid for 12 months. If yours is expiring soon, create a new one immediately to maintain your position.
2. Optimize everything you can control
- Language test scores
- Spouse credentials
- Educational credential assessments
- Work experience documentation
3. Research your PNP options
Don’t wait for Express Entry to save you. Provincial nominations exist for exactly this reason.
4. Consider French seriously
Even basic French proficiency opens dramatically lower cutoff draws.
5. Stay informed but don’t obsess
Check IRCC’s draw results page weekly. Don’t refresh it hourly—you’ll drive yourself crazy.
6. Have your post-ITA documents ready
Police certificates, medical exams, proof of funds, reference letters—start gathering these now so you’re ready when invited.
Resources for Tracking Draws
Official IRCC Draw Results:
canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/rounds-invitations.html
CRS Score Calculator:
ircc.canada.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/crs-tool.asp
Pool Distribution (updated after each draw):
Same as draw results page, scroll down to “CRS score distribution”
Provincial Nominee Programs:
canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/provincial-nominees.html
Final Thoughts
February 2026 represents potential momentum in Express Entry that we haven’t seen in a long time. The January draws showed IRCC is willing to issue large volumes at decreasing cutoffs.
But momentum isn’t a guarantee. It’s a trend that could continue or reverse based on operational decisions we can’t predict.
If you’re close to the cutoff, this is your time to push. Optimize every point you can, research backup pathways, and be ready to move fast when an opportunity appears.
If you’re further from the cutoff, understand that Express Entry isn’t your only option—and in many cases, it’s not even your best option. Provincial programs, category draws, and French language proficiency offer legitimate alternative pathways that could work better for your specific situation.
The sub-500 question will be answered in the next 4-8 weeks. Until then, focus on what you can control: your profile, your qualifications, and your backup plans.
Stay informed. Stay strategic. And most importantly, stay realistic about what’s possible and what’s not.
Good luck to everyone in the pool. I hope February brings the draws you’ve been waiting for.
