Canada has long been a top choice for international students and skilled workers. Its welcoming policies, world-class education system, and strong job market made it a dream destination for thousands of people—especially Indians—looking to study, work, and eventually settle abroad.
But that dream is now facing new hurdles. Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced a major shift in immigration policy, signaling a significant reduction in the number of temporary residents in Canada, including international students. According to Carney, the goal is to bring temporary residents down to below 5% of the country’s population by the end of 2027, compared to a peak of 7.25% in 2024.
This announcement comes at a time when refusal rates for study permits are soaring, with Indian students being hit the hardest. Let’s break down what this means for students, workers, and Canada’s immigration future.
Why Canada Is Reducing Temporary Residents
In his address to the Liberal Party caucus in Edmonton, Carney emphasized the need to restore immigration to “sustainable levels.” While Canada remains committed to welcoming newcomers, the Prime Minister stressed the importance of ensuring the country has the capacity to support them—from housing and healthcare to jobs and education.
His remarks highlight a growing concern: Canada’s ability to manage the rapid influx of migrants, especially after immigration levels surged during and after the pandemic. By tightening the intake of international students and temporary foreign workers, the government hopes to ease pressure on infrastructure and public services.
Carney stated clearly:
“We are welcoming people to our country. We have to make sure we have the capacity to fulfill that welcome.”
This is not an outright rejection of immigration, but rather a recalibration—one that could have long-lasting consequences for international students, particularly from India.
Indian Students: The Hardest Hit
The global education platform PIE News recently reported alarming data: Indian students have faced unprecedented levels of rejection in 2025. According to BorderPass, a lawyer-backed immigration platform, nearly four out of five Indian students were rejected for study permits in the second quarter of 2025.
That means around 80% of Indian applicants were denied, compared to much lower rejection rates in the past.
Here are some key numbers that show the steep decline:
- Between April and June 2025, Canada issued only 17,885 study permits to Indian students, compared to 55,660 in the same period of 2024. That’s a staggering 66% drop.
- Indians made up just 32% of study permits issued in Q2 2025, down from nearly 45% in Q2 2024.
- In the first six months of 2025, Indian students received 47,695 study permits, compared to 99,950 in 2024—a drop of more than 52%.
- Overall, Canada issued 149,860 study permits in January–June 2025, down from 245,055 during the same period in 2024. That’s nearly 100,000 fewer permits across all nationalities.
This sharp decline continues a trend that began in 2024 when the Canadian government started tightening its student visa rules.
Why Are Indian Students Facing So Many Refusals?
Several factors are driving this surge in refusals:
- Policy Shifts on Immigration
Canada has been vocal about limiting temporary residents. Since students make up a large portion of this category, they are directly affected. - Concerns Over Fraud and Misuse
A number of high-profile cases involving fake admission letters and fraudulent applications have led to stricter scrutiny of Indian applicants. - Housing and Infrastructure Pressure
Cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary are experiencing severe housing shortages. International students often struggle to find affordable housing, pushing the government to rethink intake numbers. - Public Sentiment
With anti-immigrant rhetoric on the rise in some parts of Canada, policymakers are under pressure to strike a balance between welcoming newcomers and addressing citizens’ concerns. - Economic Slowdown
Canada’s job market has cooled, and concerns about whether students can find work after graduation are contributing to stricter regulations.
The Bigger Picture: Canada’s Immigration Targets
Carney’s announcement is not just about students—it affects all temporary residents. At its peak in 2024, temporary residents made up 7.25% of Canada’s population. The new goal is to bring that number below 5% by 2027.
That means fewer international students, fewer temporary foreign workers, and tighter control over immigration categories.
This change is expected to be reflected in Canada’s new immigration plan, which the government will present before Parliament in the coming weeks. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has already warned that the numbers released for 2025 are preliminary estimates—but the downward trend is clear.
What Does This Mean for Indian Students?
For Indian families, Canada has been one of the most popular destinations for overseas education. In fact, before the recent crackdown, India accounted for nearly 40–45% of Canada’s international student population.
With the new restrictions, the journey has become much more uncertain:
- Higher Rejection Rates: Families will have to prepare for tougher application scrutiny, meaning cleaner documentation, stronger proof of funds, and higher academic standards will be critical.
- Uncertainty About Future Pathways: Many students chose Canada not just for education but also as a stepping stone to permanent residency. With temporary resident reductions, the PR pathway could become longer and more competitive.
- Financial Strain: Families often take loans or liquidate assets to fund education abroad. Higher rejection rates mean more wasted applications, leading to financial and emotional stress.
- Shift in Destinations: Many may now look to alternatives such as the UK, Australia, Germany, or even the US—countries that are actively competing for international students.
Comparing Canada with Other Countries
While Canada tightens its rules, other countries are stepping up efforts to attract students.
- UK: Recently debated extending settlement timelines but still offers strong post-study work options.
- Australia: Actively promoting education as it recovers from pandemic-era restrictions.
- Germany & France: Offering affordable education and growing English-taught programmes, making them attractive alternatives.
- New Zealand: Reported over 73,000 international enrolments in 2024, with strong growth from India.
For Indian students, these destinations are no longer “backup options.” They are serious alternatives with competitive visa regimes and growing Indian communities.
Canada’s Challenge: Balancing Growth and Capacity
The Canadian government faces a delicate balancing act. On one hand, international students contribute billions to the economy. According to government data, they added more than $22 billion annually through tuition fees, rent, and living expenses. They also support jobs and bring cultural diversity to campuses.
On the other hand, the rapid growth in student numbers has strained Canada’s infrastructure—especially in housing and healthcare. Local communities have voiced concerns about overcrowded rentals, rising rents, and pressure on public services.
By reducing temporary residents, Carney hopes to restore balance. But the risk is clear: if international students feel unwelcome, they may choose other countries, costing Canada both revenue and global talent.
What’s Next for Students and Families?
For now, students and families should keep a close eye on Canada’s upcoming immigration plan. Until then, experts recommend a few strategies:
- Strengthen Applications
Provide complete, transparent documentation and proof of funds to improve chances of approval. - Plan Financially
Account for the possibility of multiple applications and higher visa costs. - Explore Alternatives
Keep backup options in the UK, Australia, Europe, or New Zealand. - Stay Updated
Immigration policies are changing fast. Families should rely on trusted sources like IRCC, Canadian universities, and registered consultants.
Final Thoughts
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s move to cut down temporary residents is a major turning point in Canada’s immigration story. For Indian students—who form the largest international student group in Canada—this change is already being felt in the form of soaring refusal rates and uncertain futures.
While the government’s focus is on sustainability, the human impact is undeniable. Families that dream of a better future through Canadian education now face financial risks, emotional stress, and difficult choices.
At the same time, the global education landscape is shifting. Other countries are offering more predictable pathways, and students are increasingly diversifying their destinations.
The message is clear: Canada is not closing its doors, but it is narrowing them. For Indian students and their families, the key lies in preparation, adaptability, and keeping options open.
